The Theory of Demographic Transition:
The theory of demographic transition is based on the actual population trends of advanced countries of the world. According to this theory, every country passes through three different stages of population growth. In the first stage, the birth rate and the death rate are high and the growth rate of population is low. In the second stage, the birth rate remains stable but the death rate falls rapidly. As a result, the growth rate of population increases very swiftly. In the last stage, the birth rate starts falling and tends to equal the death rate. The growth rate of population is very slow. These three stages are explained in the Figure 5. The term was first coined by the American demographer Frank W. Notestein in the mid-twentieth century.
In the figure, the time for different stages is taken on the horizontal axis and annual birth and death rates per thousand on the vertical axis. In the first stage, before the 19th century, birth rates in Western Europe were 35 per thousand and death rates fluctuated around 30 per thousand. Thus the growth rate of population was about 5 per thousand. In the second stage, death rates began to decline gradually from 30 per thousand to 20 per thousand from the middle of the 19th century to the end of the century. In the third stage beginning with the 20th century, birth rates began to decline from 20 per thousand and have continued for about a century now, nearing 15 per thousand. Death rates also continued to decline but seem to have stabilized between 10 to 55 per thousand in Western Europe.
First Stage: In this stage, the country is backward and is characterised by high birth and death rates with the result that the growth rate of population is low. People mostly live in rural areas and their main occupation is agriculture which is in a state of backwardness. There are a few simple, light and small consumer goods industries. The tertiary sector consisting of transport, commerce, banking and insurance is underdeveloped. All these factors are responsible for low incomes and poverty of the masses. Large family is regarded as a necessity to augment the low family income. Children are an asset to the society and parents. There being mass illiteracy, the society is not expected to educate them and thus burden itself. The existence of the joint family system provides employment to all children in keeping with their ages. Thus a child becomes an earning member even at the age 5 when he becomes a helping hand to his parents in domestic affairs. More children in a family are also regarded as an insurance against old age by the parents. People being illiterate, ignorant, and superstitious and fatalist are averse to any methods of birth control. Children are regarded as God-given and preordained. Being childless is regarded as a curse and the parents are looked down upon by the society. All these economic and social factors are responsible for a high birth rate in the country. Along with high birth rate, the death rate is also high due to non-nutritional food with a low caloric value, and lack of medical facilities and of any sense of cleanliness. People live in dirty and unhealthy surroundings in ill-ventilated small houses. As a result, they are, disease-ridden and the absence of proper medical care results in large deaths.
The mortality rate is the highest among the children and the next among women of childbearing age. Thus unhygienic conditions, poor diet and the lack of medical facilities are the reasons for a high mortality rate in this stage. This stage continued in Western Europe approximately up to 1840.
Second Stage: In the second stage, the economy enters the phase of economic growth. Agricultural and industrial productivity increases and the means of transport develop. There is greater mobility of labour. Education expands. Incomes increase. People get more and better quality food products. Medical and health facilities are expanded. Modern drugs are used by the people. All these factors bring down the death rate. But the birth rate is almost stable. People do not have any inclination to reduce the birth of children because with economic growth employment opportunities increase and children are able to add more to the family income. With improvements in the standard of living and the dietary habits of the people, the life expectancy also increases.
People do not make any efforts to control the size of family because of the presence of religious dogmas and social taboos towards family planning. Of all the factors in economic growth, it is difficult to break with the past social institutions, customs and beliefs. As a result of these factors, the birth rate remains at the previous high level.
Third Stage: In this stage, the fertility rate declines and tends to equal the death rate so that the growth rate of population declines. As growth gains momentum and people cross the subsistence level of income, their standard of living rises. The leading growth sectors expand and lead to an expansion in output in other sectors through technical transformations. Education expands and permeates the entire society. Popular education leads to popular enlightenment and opens the way to knowledge. It creates self-discipline, power to think rationally and to probe into the future. People discard old customs, dogmas and beliefs and develop individualistic spirit and break with the joint family.
Men and women prefer to marry late. The desire to have more children to supplement parental income declines. People readily adopt family planning devices. They prefer to go in for a baby car rather than a baby. Moreover, increased specialisation following rising income levels and the consequent social and economic mobility make it costly and inconvenient to rear a large number of children. All this tends to reduce the birth rate which along with an already low death rate brings a decline in the growth rate of population. The advanced countries of the world are passing through this last stage and the population is increasing at a slow pace in them.
In the final phase, Stage 4, we see the postindustrial era of a society. Birth and death rates are low, people are healthier and live longer, and society enters a phase of population stability. Overall population may even decline. For example, Sweden is considered to be in Stage 4.
Some scholars have added Stage 5, suggesting another stage when fertility either remains below replacement levels, or begins to rise slowly again.
Demographic Transition of India
The history of growth of India’s population can be divided into four distinct phases –
- (i) the stagnant growth stage (1901-1921)
- (ii) the steady growth stage (1921-1951)
- (iii) the rapid growth stage (1951- 1981)
- (iv) the high growth with definite signs of slowing down (1981-2011)
(i) The Period of Stagnant Population (1901-1921) or High Stationary Stage of Demographic Transition
During most of the 19th century India witnessed sporadic, irregular and slow growth of population which drifted into twentieth century until 1921. Thus the population growth during this period can be termed more or less stagnant. The high birth rate was counterbalanced by high death rate. In fact, the census year 1921 registered a negative growth rate of -0.31 per cent which happened only once throughout the demographic history of India. It is because of this decline it is called the year of Great Demographic Divide. The first twenty years of the twentieth century, thus, witnessed a growth rate of only 5.4 per cent in India’ s population. It may be recalled here that the decade 1901-1911 was struck by several local famines. For instance, one such famine occurred in 1907 in areas what later came to be known as Uttar Pradesh. The northern zone suffered from plague and malaria and recorded a negative growth in its population during the decade. The situation was even worse during 1911-21 when India’s population recorded a virtual shrink in its size in the wake of influenza epidemic, which has struck in 1919. It has been estimated that the epidemic claimed the life of nearly 7 per cent of the population in the country. In Uttar Pradesh, the decadal growth rates for 1901-1911 and 1911-1921 decades were -1.36 per cent and -3.16 per cent and in Bihar also it was negative in 1911-1921 at -0.97 per cent for Bihar and also for West Bengal (-2.91 per cent). But the north-eastern zone registered a very high population growth rate mainly due to migration and lesser sufferings from famines and epidemics. The southern zone recorded normal population growth rates. However, Kerala was an exception with 1.75 per cent and 9.16 per cent decadal growth rates in 1901-1911 and 1911-1921 decades, respectively. Overall, India was in the high stationary (high births and high deaths) stage of demographic transition up to 1921 . The period from 1921 to 1981, represents phase of gradual change in crude birth rates and sharp decline in crude death rates. This represents first phase of population expansion or population explosion stage of demographic transition called early expanding stage. In Indian context, it is logical to divide this into two stages, the first one from 1921 to 1951 and second one from 1951 to 1981. In the first part phase of mortality induced population expansion the average annual exponential growth rate is on an average about 1.2 per cent. In the second phase (1951 to 1981) of fertility induced population growth the average annual exponential growth rate becomes about 2.1 per cent. Therefore, the first stage represents population expansion at low and steady rates and second as phase of rapid high growth of population.
(ii) The Period of Steady Growth (1921-1951)
From 1921 progressive control of epidemics like cholera, plague and malaria resulted in acceleration in the rate of population growth. Over a period of thirty years population grew at moderately increasing rate. The northern zone witnessed exceptionally high growth rate. Strikingly, the central zone recorded a consistently lower growth rate than the nation’s average perhaps because of a persistently higher incidence of mortality and substantial out-migration. In may be recalled that this was the period of initial industrial growth in the western zone, particularly in the areas of Bombay Presidency and to some extent, in the state of Baroda, which attracted migrants from different parts of the country. After 1921, India entered into the early expanding stage of demographic transition with declining deaths and relatively higher births. The crude death rate which stood at a high of 48 per thousand in 1921 declined to 27 per thousand in 1951 . On the contrary, the crude birth continued to stay at an abnormally high level and declined only to 41 per thousand in 1951 as against 48 per thousand in 1921. Decline in death rate was also achieved partly through the improvement in the distribution system as a result of improved transportation so that timely supplies of food could be made available to drought and famine stricken areas. The combined effect of these factors was that the population started increasing steadily. Since crude death rate declined considerably and crude birth rate remained very high the population growth during this period is called mortality induced growth.
(iii)The Period of Rapid High Growth (1951-1981)
The year 1951 marks the beginning of a rapid growth in the population of the country as a result of a sharper decline in death rate but fertility remained stubbornly high. Therefore, this period is often referred to as the period of population explosion. This unprecedented growth rate was due to the accelerated developmental activities and further improvement in health facilities. The living conditions of the people improved enormously. Death rates declined much faster than the birth rates. This situation resulted in high natural increase. Thus, it was fertility induced growth. The average annual exponential growth increased from 1.21 per cent during 1921-1951 to 2.13 per cent during 1951-1981. Though all the zones witnessed increase in pace of population growth, the northern zone recorded the largest acceleration. The next highest growth rate was recorded in the western zone.
(iv)The Period of High Growth With Definite Signs of Slowing Down (1981-2011)
The year 1981can be called yet another year of great divide in the demographic history of the country. With this India entered into the late expanding stage of demographic transition. The spatial pattern in the growth of population in the country during the 1990s, thus, again reveals a marked ‘north-south’ divide. On an average, the northern parts of the country are found to have recorded faster growth in population during the decade as compared to their counterparts in the south. If a straight line is drawn connecting the southernmost tip of Gujarat in the west and the southern limit of Murshidabad district of West Bengal in the east, one comes across a generally higher growth in population to the north of this line. The only exception to this can be seen in some areas in Punjab plains, in hilly districts of Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.
Almost the whole of Kerala and Tamil Nadu, major parts of Karnataka, Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh have witnessed a lower growth than the nation’s average. A remarkably lower annual growth rate in the states of Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Goa is indicative of the fact that they have reached in an advanced stage of demographic transition. With substantial decline in the birth rates during the post-independence period, these states have already reached replacement level (RR) fertility in the country . The continuing deceleration in the pace of population growth in the country over the last two decades is indicative of the fact that India’s population is closing towards the end of the third of late expanding stage of demographic transition.
The demographic scenario at the aggregate national levels, however, conceals many of the regional peculiarities. India is a vast country with a great amount of regional diversity in terms of its geography, historical experience and socio-cultural attributes including demographic situation. On the one extreme, states like Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Goa are on the verge of completing the transition. In addition, some of the smaller states like Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura are also found to be very close to the completion of the transition. Remarkably, these states are located in the northeastern parts and have a substantial proportion of Christian in their population. A rapid transition in fertility and mortality rates in these states can be attributed to the works of Christian Missionaries.
On the other extreme, the so called ‘BIMARU’ (term introduced in 1990s in demographic discussions) states- Bihar (including Jharkhand), Madhya Pradesh (including Chhattisgarh), Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh (including Uttarakhand) – in the Hindi belt of the north are still in the early expanding stage of transition. The death rates in these states are low but birth rates are still high. As a result of this, the natural rate of growth in these states is still above 1.75 per cent per annum. These states have now been identified as EAG (Empowered Action Group) states along with Odisha. In the EAG states decadal growth rate for 2001 to 2011 was 20.92 per cent whereas the non-EAG states growth rate was 14.99 per cent and national average was 17.64 per cent. Among these states Bihar has the highest average annual exponential growth rate of 2.26 per cent, followed by Chhattisgarh (2.06), Jharkhand (2.04), Rajasthan (1.96), Madhya Pradesh (1.87), Uttar Pradesh (1.85) and Uttarakhand (1.77). The EAG group states, from 1951 to 2011, have constituted about 43 to 46 per cent population of the country. During 1951 to 1971, increased population growth rates of non-EAG states and UTs and EGA states contributed in population explosion in India. It is noteworthy that during this time period the growth rates were about 3 per cent higher in non-EGA states as compared to EAG states (Figure 3). From 1971 onward in non-EAG states and UTs decadal growth rate declined to about 3 per cent in first two decades and then 8 per cent in the next two decades i.e. 1981-91 to 2001-11. This is result of sharp decline in total fertility rates in these states. Initially it was limited to southern states but in last decade Punjab, Himachal Pradesh,
Maharashtra and West Bengal have also achieved below replacement rate (2.1 children per women) TFR.
The fertility transition in all these states have been achieved overwhelmingly through an increase in the use of modern contraceptive methods, especially female sterilization national commitment. Even after introduction of this policy in EAG states population growth rates increased and stabilized at about 25 per cent from 1971 to 2001. In the last decade both EAG and Non-EAG states and UTs recorded same drop of 4 per cent in growth rates but the gap of 6 per cent between them still prevails.
In terms of average annual exponential growth rates significant changes have taken place in the last two decades. In the decade 1991-2001, 16.6 per cent population increased at growth rate of less than 1.5 per cent and in 2001-2011 about 44.6 per cent population recorded this rate of growth . The high population growth rate of more than 2 per cent prevailed for about 58 per cent population of the country in 1991-2001 but in share of population declined to just 15 per cent. All these statistics indicate that India is passing through the last phase of expanding population and in near future will enter into low stationary stage of demographic transition with new challenges such as ageing of population.
Conclusion
Over the period of time India has moved from high stationary stage to late expanding stage of demographic transition. The mortality rates declined at a faster pace as compared to fertility rates. The fertility goals fixed in different five year plans and policies have been missed and postponed time and again. The non-EAG states and UTs were able to pass through the population explosion stage far earlier than EAG states. Even today the fertility rates in the EAG states are more than replacement rate. The 2001-11 decade for the first time since 1921 added lesser number of persons as compared to the previous decade. The EAG states also recorded a steep fall in growth rates during this decade, especially Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan. In Chhatishgarh and Tamil Nadu states in this decade growth rates increased may be due to migration. The EAG states and Assam collectively account for the highest rates of fertility, infant mortality, child mortality and maternal mortality rates in India. Therefore, for the transition of India into a low stationary stage to achieve the long term goal of stable population focus on reproductive, maternal, newborn, child and adolescent health, female literacy and women empowerment is required especially in EAG states.